Model T Day 2024 is on Tuesday, October 1, 2024: weather models 100 days out and good?

Tuesday, October 1, 2024 is Model T Day 2024. Hemmings Find of the Day – 1926 Ford Model T Touring 1926 Ford Model T Touring

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I agree with cyswxman but have to add another problem.

The initial data set that is used to input to the models is not completely accurate. Since the models advance in time by increments of only a few minutes at a time, any error in the data is multiplied many times to get out to 84 hours or the global models even more to get out to 240 hours. Each time the error is multiplied and slowly gets larger. That is one of the reasons why the forecasts get less and less accurate with time. Forecasts for a following day are typically reasonablely accurate but often the third or beyond days forecast may be not nearly as so.

Instruments, both surface and upper air have an accuracy of around plus or minus a degree C. Even this small error, when multiplied a few hundreds times becomes very large with time. The longer you try to run a model, the lager the errors become and if you try to run it out beyond about 30 days, the errors overwhelm the original data.

There currently is no way to initialize models with 100 percent accurate data since the instruments themselves are not that accurate.

The other problem is the density of the data in the first place. To have enough data to have good initialization at a resolution that would give an accurate forecast even at 10 days would require a 100 percent accurate data set with full instrumentation in each 1 km square. First it would be cost prohibitive, second, there is no computer system in the world, or even in the foreseeable future that could handle, and manipulate that large of a data set in a timely fashion.

do models these days need to be anorexic?

not all models have to be "anorexic". it depends who u r modeling for. is this "anorexic" look is a terrible myth produced by society and models who cannot deal with the stress.

many models who are thin are naturally that thin. then there are those who have to work for it. the modeling world is not always the easiest. models need to learn stress control and how to eat healthy so that they do not gain unhealthy wieght.

that there is the biggest problem and even bigger in just typical society. ppl need to learn stress control and eating healthy. eat healthy foods and what and how much to eat so that u still feel full. not to mention self control.

do not blame the media for things young ppl aspire to be. blame the parents. as they should have instilled in them what is acceptable. and i dont mean by forcing it upon them and punishing them when they try to be themselves.